Monday, 21 July 2008

Another Monday feast of racing

Well yesterday those pesky Shakespeare lay bets found the big winner they conspire to find but this time it was a biggie in Quatermain,so far i have seen prices as big as 14/1 but winning by a neck at 20/1 you can see why i put the caveat (too lay or not too lay) they will on an irregular basis find a big priced winner but regularly find one or two winners through the weeks.
There is no pattern to follow that i can see which is why they are not put up as bets so always beware they do and will crop up especially after a good run as has been lately or when there are a lot of selections in a given day.
The banker bet came good at good odds of 11/4,Jim bobs girl that's 5 out of five recently and only one other winner at 6/5 for the Target races.
The day's racing did look poor as i said and this is when upsets do occur and that's racing but on an upbeat note the experimental lay bets i researched for the whole of July so far and they appear to run to a good level of losing horses/winning lays and currently stand for the month at a 75% strike rate for picking losers /winning lay bets so i will continue to put them up as Lay bets. The winners that did lose as lay bets were biggest priced at 9/2 and shortest at 5/6 and an average of 3/1 winners so a very good base for continuing to put these up as lays i think,longest winning run was 11 lays.I was reliably informed that any system needs at least 5oo races or selections to prove itself so that at current levels would take us up to the end of 2008 so keep recording these bets and see what you think.
Today is the usual Monday fare so down to business.

Shakespeare lays (too lay or not too lay)
2.45 Teeky/Ray of joy
6.20 Thought is free/Special reserve
7.20 It's a game/Pansy potter

The days most questionable horses to back or lay.

Banker bet :
4.15 Pretty demanding around the 4/1 mark.

Fibionacci bets:
3.00 Fitz flyer 5 points.

One a day lay;
4.30 Inxile
(these lays have been great, in all bar sprint races recently ie Marchant d'or/Knot in wood so have a look at this one, careful consideration may need to be taken here"progressive 3 yr old, clear of the 3rd lto in a listed race at Sandown ,D nicholls sprinter on a flatter track that may suit! the decision is yours, i only point out what has happened in the last week or so?)

Experimental lay bets:
8.00 Rasaman
6.40 Ballinrobe: Damasque

Target races:
Favourites.
6.30 Metroland
6.50 Check up
3.00 Fitz flyer

Value bets:
6.30 Readily/Small john
6.50 Missile baileys/Tabulate
3.00 Jobe

Outsiders:
6.30 Blackwater fort
6.50 Nil bleu (G baker's only ride of the night)
3.00 Bun penny

Longshots:
4.45 Lavender and lace 144 points.
This will be the final longshot on the fibionacci staking plan, but i will record for level stakes and let you know if a profit can be made out of these bets without such an aggressive staking plan time will tell.

Enjoy the week and let's hope for a few lurkers on the bets front today to balance things out.